March 17, 2004

Unemployment Higher Among College Grads

Here's a reason the Bush team should be even more worried about the state of this recovery: the unemployment rate for college grads is higher than that of high-school dropouts. On the surface this would seem to vindicate the more protectionist approach the Democrats have been taking as of late, blaming our lack of recovery at least in part on jobs leaving for India. The truth, though, is a bit more complicated. Outsourcing only accounts for 1% of jobs lost, so the real culprit here is more likely to be fallout from the unprecedented growth in jobs requiring a college education during the boom. But what's real and what's perceived are two different things, and in this case the Bush team is looking to lose the battle on spin.

So far economic recovery has been higher in the South than elsewhere in the country, which in and of itself makes it harder for a Democratic candidate to do well there. But we knew that was the case before the latest set of economic indicators was released. What these unemployment numbers tell us is Bush is going to have a hard time convincing college educated swing voters that his economic plan is working. We're likely to see faster economic growth as November grows closer, but if this trend doesn't change that may not matter so much. By offering tax incentives for job growth, instead of just more tax cuts, the Democrats have the opportunity to put forward an economic plan that will appeal to the people most likely to listen, and most likely to vote.

Posted by Palabris at March 17, 2004 02:14 PM
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